Financial Statements 03: Explain high returns on capital财报阅读 03：高回报从哪里来

One idea: Explain returns on operating capital. Case · See’s Candies, 1972 and 2007本期知识点：解释经营资本回报的来源。真实案例 · 喜诗糖果，1972 与 2007 年

What did the owner have to put in?赚到这些利润，股东先投入了什么？

Two businesses each earn 15 a year. One needs 100 of capital to operate; the other needs 300. If the earnings are equally durable and measured consistently, the first uses scarce capital much more efficiently. The income statement alone cannot reveal that difference. We need to connect its earnings with the resources supporting them.两家企业每年都赚 15，一家只需投入 100 的资本，另一家却需要 300。若利润同样可持续、计算口径一致，前一家使用资本的效率就高得多。单看利润表，看不出这个区别；必须把利润与支撑利润的资源联系起来。

Buffett's 1979 shareholder letter makes this distinction concrete: Berkshire's earnings per share increased while its return on the larger capital base declined. He emphasized returns earned without excessive leverage or accounting distortions. The practical reading habit is to ask what generated an improvement before celebrating the percentage.巴菲特在 1979 年股东信中具体说明了这种区别：伯克希尔每股收益提高了，但相对于扩大的资本基础，回报率反而下降。他强调的是不依赖过度杠杆或会计扭曲的资本回报。落实到读财报，就是先追问改善来自哪里，再判断那个百分比的意义。

This installment uses separate, invented mature businesses, rather than annualizing the first-year business from part 1. All monetary amounts use the same arbitrary unit. The examples concern ordinary nonfinancial businesses. Banks and insurers require different treatment of financing, regulatory capital and liabilities; their deposits and insurance float cannot simply be inserted into the formulas below as ordinary industrial debt.本期另用几组虚构的成熟企业算例，不把第一期创业公司的首年数据直接年化。所有金额使用同一种任意货币单位。讨论范围是普通非金融企业；银行和保险公司的融资、监管资本与负债需要另行分析，不能直接把存款、保险浮存金当作普通工业企业借款代入下列公式。

A high ratio is the beginning of a business question. Buffett’s capital arithmetic measures the result; the emphasis on durable business quality that he credits to Munger asks what keeps producing it. The See’s case below joins the two.高比率只是一个生意问题的起点。资本的经济账计量结果，而巴菲特归功于芒格的生意质量视角，会追问结果靠什么不断产生。下面的喜诗糖果案例把两者接在一起。

ROE: distinguish operating strength from financingROE：分清经营能力与融资方式

Return on equity, or ROE, relates the profit attributable to common shareholders to their average book equity over the period. The denominator is an accounting amount, not the stock-market value of the company. Use the average because a year's profit is earned over time; a single year-end balance may be unrepresentative. Large midyear transactions may require a time-weighted average rather than a simple opening-and-closing mean.净资产收益率 ROE，把归属于普通股股东的利润，与该期间平均的普通股账面权益相比较。分母是会计数字，不是公司股票的市值。使用平均值，是因为全年利润在一段时间内赚取，年末某一天的余额未必有代表性；年中发生重大交易时，还需要按时间加权，不能只取期初与期末的简单平均。

Here is profit attributable to common shareholders after interest, tax and any preferred dividends; is their average book equity. To see the effect of financing, compare two businesses with the same 100 of operating capital and the same 20 of annual earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). B finances half its capital with debt at 8% interest. Both pay 25% tax. Assume the financing balances remain constant and profits are distributed, so those balances also equal the annual averages.这里， 是扣除利息、所得税及优先股股利后归属于普通股股东的利润， 是其平均账面权益。现在比较两家企业：经营资本同为 100，年度息税前利润 EBIT 同为 20。B 用利率 8% 的借款提供一半资本，两家的税率都是 25%。假设融资余额保持不变、利润分配出去，因此表中资本余额也等于全年平均值。

Annual measure年度指标	A · no debtA · 无借款	B · half debtB · 一半靠借款
Equity / interest-bearing debt股东权益 / 有息债务	100 / 0	50 / 50
EBIT	20	20
Interest利息	0	50 × 8% = 4
Net income净利润	20 × 75% = 15	(20 − 4) × 75% = 12
ROE	15%	24%

Repurchases can also reduce book equity and lift ROE without improving operations. Asset impairments can shrink the denominator for later years; internally developed brands and research may be expensed rather than recorded as assets. These accounting effects make cross-company rankings hazardous. When equity is tiny or negative, stop treating ROE as a useful ranking and examine the business and financing directly.回购也会减少账面权益，可能在经营没有改善时抬高 ROE。资产减值会缩小后续年份的分母；自建品牌和研发投入又可能已经费用化，没有作为资产留在表上。这些会计差异使跨公司的简单排名很容易失真。权益很小甚至为负时，就不要继续把 ROE 当成有效排行榜，应直接检查经营与融资。

Try it: what if EBIT falls from 20 to 4?练习：如果 EBIT 从 20 跌到 4 呢？

Holding the example's capital and interest terms constant, A earns 4 × 75% = 3, so ROE is 3%. B uses all 4 to pay interest, leaving zero profit and zero ROE. Its operating business was no stronger when ROE was 24%. Read debt maturities and liquidity alongside profitability: the profit calculation alone says nothing about whether principal can be repaid.保持算例中的资本和利息条件不变，A 的净利润为 4 × 75% = 3，ROE 为 3%；B 的 4 全部用来付息，净利润和 ROE 都变成 0。之前 24% 的 ROE，并没有说明 B 的经营业务更强。还要把债务到期时间与流动性一起读：这张利润计算表，并没有回答本金能否偿还。

ROIC: put operating profit over operating capitalROIC：让经营利润对应经营资本

To compare the business before the choice between debt and equity, use return on invested capital, or ROIC. Its numerator is after-tax operating profit before financing costs, often called NOPAT. Its denominator is the average capital committed to those same operations. ROIC is an analytical measure, not one standardized line that every annual report defines identically.想比较企业在选择借款或股权融资之前的经营能力，可以看投入资本回报率 ROIC。分子是扣税后、扣融资成本前的经营利润，常称 NOPAT；分母是支持这些经营活动的平均投入资本。ROIC 是分析指标，并不是每份年报定义都完全一致的标准报表项目。

In this simplified calculation, is a normalized tax rate on operating profit, not necessarily the reported effective tax rate distorted by one-off items. and are opening and closing invested capital. Do not put after-interest net income in this numerator while leaving debt-funded capital in the denominator: that mixes two different questions.这个简化计算里的 是经营利润适用的正常化税率，不一定等于受一次性事项影响的报表实际税率； 与 分别是期初、期末投入资本。不要在分子放扣过利息的净利润，分母却仍保留债务出资形成的资本，那是在混合两个不同的问题。

Here invested capital means operating assets less non-interest-bearing operating liabilities such as trade payables. Required operating cash belongs in the operating assets; excess cash and unrelated investments do not, and their income is excluded from operating profit. Borrowing is financing capital, not a trade payable to subtract here. For this example there are no leases, acquisitions or minority interests to reconcile.本例把投入资本定义为经营资产减去应付货款等无息经营负债。维持经营所必需的现金算经营资产，超额现金与无关投资不算，其收益也不进入经营利润。有息借款是资本来源，不能在这里像应付货款一样扣掉。为便于入门，本例没有租赁、收购或少数股东权益需要额外调整。

Capital employed用了多少资本

Opening: net operating working capital 60 + net fixed assets 140 = 200.
Closing: 65 + 155 = 220.
Average: (200 + 220) ÷ 2 = 210.期初：经营净营运资本 60 + 固定资产净额 140 = 200。
期末：65 + 155 = 220。
平均：(200 + 220) ÷ 2 = 210。

What it earned资本带来什么

Annual EBIT: 42.
Operating tax at 25%: 10.5.
NOPAT: 42 − 10.5 = 31.5.年度 EBIT：42。
按 25% 计算经营税负：10.5。
NOPAT：42 − 10.5 = 31.5。

31.5 ÷ 210 = 15%

For a real company, write down your adjustments. If leases are treated as financing capital, adjust the profit treatment consistently. When judging an acquisition, include the price actually committed, including goodwill; removing goodwill and then calling the resulting ratio management's acquisition return erases part of what shareholders paid. An asset-light business may have little recorded capital because earlier spending was expensed. A large ratio needs an economic explanation, not automatic praise.分析真实公司时，要把调整过程写出来。若把租赁视为融资资本，相应利润处理也要一致。判断收购是否成功，应考虑实际投入的收购价，包括商誉；先删掉商誉，再把高比率称作管理层的收购回报，相当于抹去了股东付过的一部分钱。轻资产企业也可能因为历史支出已费用化而只有很少的账面资本。比率很大，需要经济解释，不能自动得高分。

The next investment matters more than the old average下一笔投资，不能只参考过去的平均成绩

A strong existing business may have few attractive expansion opportunities. Suppose a mature operation earns 30 of annual NOPAT on 200 of capital. Management adds 60, and, once the expansion is fully operating, annual NOPAT reaches 42. The added capital appears to produce 12 a year: an incremental return of 20%. If the same investment lifts profit only to 33, the incremental return is 5%, despite the attractive original business.原有生意很好，也可能已经没有多少划算的扩张机会。假设一家成熟企业用 200 的资本，每年获得 30 的 NOPAT。管理层再投入 60，扩张充分投产后，年度 NOPAT 达到 42，新增资本看起来每年带来 12，增量回报为 20%。如果同样投入 60，却只把利润提高到 33，增量回报就只有 5%，尽管原有生意仍然不错。

This difference quotient is a research clue, not a causal estimate. Existing products may have become more expensive, raw-material costs may have fallen, and a new factory may take years to reach capacity. Compare several years and explain which investments produced which earnings; use project cash flows when available. Growth creates value only if the future return compensates for the time and risk of committing the capital. Buffett discusses the importance of incremental returns in his 1992 letter.这种差额相除只是研究线索，不是因果估计。原有产品可能涨价，原材料可能降价，新工厂也可能几年后才能达产。要比较多个年份，解释哪些投入对应哪些利润；有项目现金流时，就进一步看项目。增长是否创造价值，取决于未来回报能否补偿资本投入的时间与风险。巴菲特在 1992 年股东信里讨论了增量回报的重要性。

Try it: profit rose by 3. Did the expansion succeed?练习：利润多了 3，扩张就成功了吗？

Not enough information. In the simplified steady example, 3 ÷ 60 = 5%. If the appropriate required return on that capital is an assumed 10%, it needs 6 of annual after-tax operating profit to meet that hurdle. Earning 3 falls short by 3. The 10% is a teaching assumption, not a universal hurdle or Buffett's prescribed rate; a real decision also needs the timing, useful life, risk and remaining value of the investment.还不能这样下结论。按这个简化的稳定经营算例，3 ÷ 60 = 5%。若假设这笔资本适合的必要回报率是 10%，每年就需要 6 的税后经营利润才能达到要求，赚 3 还差 3。这里的 10% 只是教学假设，既不是统一门槛，也不是巴菲特规定的折现率；真实决策还要考虑投入时间、使用寿命、风险与剩余价值。

A moat needs an explanation that survives the numbers护城河，需要经得住数字检验的解释

If a business earns unusually high returns, why do competitors not take them away? That is the useful question behind a moat. A brand, a lower production cost or an expensive switching process could provide an answer. The financial statements show outcomes; they do not prove the cause or guarantee that protection will persist.一家企业回报率很高，竞争对手为什么没有把利润抢走？这是“护城河”背后真正有用的问题。品牌、更低的生产成本、代价很高的更换供应商过程，都可能提供解释。财报展示的是结果，并不直接证明成因，更不保证这种保护会一直存在。

Read segment disclosures, management's price/volume explanations and competitor reports together. A high gross margin is not a moat score: some strong businesses deliberately charge low margins and turn their capital quickly. Write a falsifiable explanation, such as “customers renew despite a price increase,” and identify the disclosure that would show it failing.把分部披露、管理层对价格与销量的解释、竞争对手年报放在一起读。毛利率高不等于护城河深：有些优秀生意主动维持低毛利，通过资本快速周转赚钱。写下一个可以被证伪的解释，例如“提价后客户仍然续约”，并指出什么披露会说明这个判断失效。

Case · See’s turns little additional capital into earnings真实案例：喜诗如何用较少新增资本支撑盈利

“buy wonderful businesses at fair prices.”“以合理的价格买入优秀的生意。”

For the 1972 See’s acquisition, Buffett’s 2014 retrospective reports about $4 million of annual pre-tax earnings on $8 million of net tangible assets. Dividing gives roughly 50%, before tax and on this historical asset definition. That ratio describes capital productivity, not the return earned by a buyer paying a different price.巴菲特在 2014 年回顾收购喜诗时，给出 1972 年约 400 万美元税前利润、800 万美元净有形资产。相除约为 50%，这是税前、按该历史资产定义计算的资本效率；它不是支付另一收购价的买家的投资回报。

The mechanism matters more than the impressive first ratio. Buffett’s 2007 letter, printed p. 7, explains that cash sales avoided receivables and a short production/distribution cycle limited inventory. A durable customer preference supported pricing. Together, these features allowed earnings to grow without requiring a proportionate increase in operating capital.比第一个漂亮的比率更值得研究的是形成它的机制。巴菲特在 2007 年股东信第 7 页解释：现款销售减少了应收账款，较短的生产与配送周期限制了存货占用，持久的顾客偏好支撑了定价。几项条件共同作用，使利润增长不必伴随经营资本同比例增加。

In the 2007 letter, “Businesses — The Great, the Good and the Gruesome”, Buffett connects See's competitive position with its low need for additional capital. He reports required operating capital of $8 million at the 1972 purchase and $40 million in 2007: only $32 million more. That is a useful question to bring to a new company: how much extra capital did its growth absorb? These are historical, largely pretax comparisons, not a current valuation or a standardized ROIC series.在 2007 年股东信“优秀、良好与糟糕的生意”一节中，巴菲特把喜诗糖果的竞争地位与较少的新增资本需求联系起来。他列出的经营所需资本，从 1972 年收购时的 800 万美元增至 2007 年的 4,000 万美元，只增加了 3,200 万美元。读其他公司时，可以带着这个问题：它的增长究竟吸收了多少额外资本？这些是历史性的、主要涉及税前利润的比较，并非当前估值，也不是标准化的 ROIC 时间序列。

For the next company, turn “strong brand” into a testable explanation. Do customers accept a price rise without disproportionate loss of volume or retention? Does that survive comparison with competitors and changes in the product mix? Read segment results, price/volume disclosures and working-capital notes across several years. If retention data is not disclosed, record the gap rather than inventing an answer.读下一家公司时，要把“品牌好”改写成能检验的解释：提价后，销量或客户留存是否出现不成比例的损失？与同行、产品结构变化比较后，这个解释还成立吗？连续几年读分部结果、价格与销量披露，以及营运资本附注。留存数据没有披露，就把它列为缺口，不能自己补出答案。

Low-cost operators can have strong economics with modest margins. Conversely, a small book-capital denominator can reflect expensed research or past write-downs as well as efficiency. Check what the ratio omits. A high historical return also does not prove that every new store, acquisition or product can earn the same return; expansion must find customers on terms that preserve the economics.低成本经营者可以靠不高的利润率获得良好回报。反过来，账面资本很小，也可能受到研发费用化或过去减值的影响，不全是效率高。要检查比率漏掉了什么。历史回报高，也不代表每一家新店、每一次收购、每一种新产品都能获得同样的回报；扩张还得找到愿意按合适条件购买的顾客。

Source: 2014 letter, printed p. 27; the 2007 letter explains the cash cycle.来源：2014 年股东信第 27 页；2007 年股东信解释现金周转机制。

Practice · A 50% historical ratio: what is still missing?练习：历史比率约 50%，还缺什么？

Evidence that customer preference and cash conversion endure; returns on the next investment; and a separate valuation at the offered purchase price. A historical ratio does not answer all three.还缺顾客偏好与现金转化能否持续、新增投资能赚多少，以及给定买价是否合适的独立估值。一个历史比率不能回答这三件事。

Continue with how incentives shape capital decisions.接着读第四期：管理层为什么这样用钱。