New China Life’s 2025 new-business value rose 57.4%. That looks decisive until two questions are asked: which channel supplied the growth, and how much of the estimated value survives a lower investment-return assumption? Reading a life insurer requires following the economics of contracts that will remain in force long after the sale.新华保险 2025 年新业务价值增长 57.4%。这个数字很醒目，但还要追问：增长主要由哪个渠道贡献？把未来投资回报假设调低，估算出的价值还剩多少？寿险合同销售以后还会延续多年，读财报必须把这段未来也纳入判断。
One idea: New-business value is an estimate of future shareholder benefits; test its channels and assumptions before treating it as growth in economic value. Case · New China Life, FY2024–FY2025 and January–September 2026本期知识点：新业务价值估计的是未来股东利益，要同时检查渠道与假设。真实案例 · 新华保险，2024—2025 全年及 2026 年前三季度
Define the value before ranking the growth先弄清价值的含义，再评价增速
The listed company is New China Life Insurance, A-share 601336 / H-share 01336. NBV discounts the expected future after-tax shareholder benefits from newly sold life policies, after allowing for required capital costs. Premium is the customer’s payment; NBV is an actuarial estimate; reported profit recognizes earnings under accounting rules. These quantities describe different stages and must not be added together.研究对象是新华人寿保险股份有限公司，A 股 601336、H 股 01336。新业务价值（NBV）把新售寿险合同预计产生的未来税后股东利益折现，并考虑持有必要资本的成本。保费是客户交来的钱，NBV 是精算估计，净利润是按会计规则确认的收益。三者描述不同阶段，不能加在一起。
Embedded value combines adjusted net assets with the value of existing in-force business after capital costs. It excludes the value of policies not yet sold. Changes in interest returns, claims, expenses, surrenders and discount rates can change the estimate. This is why a low price-to-embedded-value ratio alone is not proof of cheapness. The report itself warns that definitions and assumptions can differ across companies.内含价值由调整后净资产和扣除资本成本后的有效业务价值组成，不包含将来尚未售出的新保单。投资回报、赔付、费用、退保与折现率变化，都可能改变估计。因此，市值相对内含价值的倍数低，本身不足以证明便宜。年报也明确提醒，不同公司的定义与假设可能不同。
Source: New China Life 2025 annual report, printed pp. 56–58, definitions and valuation assumptions.来源：新华保险 2025 年报，第 56—58 页，内含价值定义与评估假设。
Separate sales expansion from channel economics区分销售扩张与渠道创造的价值
| Measure指标 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Attributable net profit归母净利润 | 262.29 | 362.84 |
| Original premiums原保险保费收入 | 1,705.11 | 1,958.71 |
| New-business value新业务价值 | 62.53 | 98.42 |
| NBV margin, first-year-premium basis首年保费口径新业务价值率 | 14.6% | 16.2% |
| Issued-contract insurance service result原保险合同保险服务业绩 | 162.37 | 185.49 |
| 25-month persistency25 个月继续率 | 86.2% | 93.3% |
Source: 2025 annual report, pp. 18–19, 27–29, 31 and 39; the 2024 value margin is 14.6% as disclosed in that year’s report. Insurance service result here is before ceded reinsurance, not group net profit.来源：2025 年报，第 18—19、27—29、31、39 页；2024 年价值率按当年年报披露为 14.6%。这里的保险服务业绩为原保险合同口径，尚未合并分出再保险影响，不等于集团净利润。
2024 annual report, p. 21, business analysis: the published 2024 NBV margin is 14.6%; a rounded percentage-point change should not be used to reconstruct it.2024 年报第 21 页经营分析：当年披露的 NBV 价值率为 14.6%；不要用已经四舍五入的百分点增幅倒算比较数。
NBV increased faster than premium income, while its margin and 25-month persistency improved. These observations support investigating better new-policy economics rather than describing the year as volume growth alone. Persistency matters because acquisition spending happens early and expected benefits depend on policies staying in force. But the published persistency cohorts are not necessarily the exact cohort used for the current year’s NBV; improvement is supporting evidence, not a complete validation.新业务价值比保费收入增长得快，价值率与 25 个月继续率也在改善，说明值得进一步研究新保单质量，不能只把这一年概括为规模扩张。获客费用往往先发生，预期收益又依赖保单持续有效，所以继续率很重要。不过，公布的继续率观察的是特定保单批次，并非恰好验证当年全部 NBV；它是支持证据，不是完整验收。
| Measure指标 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Individual agency个险渠道 | 40.25 | 48.05 |
| Bancassurance银行保险渠道 | 25.09 | 52.73 |
| Group insurance团体保险渠道 | −2.81 | −2.36 |
| Total合计 | 62.53 | 98.42 |
Source: 2025 annual report, p. 59. The three channels reconcile to total NBV.来源：2025 年报，第 59 页。三个渠道合计与 NBV 总额一致。
Bancassurance supplied 77.0% of the NBV increase, and its share of total NBV rose from 40.1% to 53.6%. This does not make the growth inferior. It identifies the place to test it: bank distribution agreements, product guarantees, commissions, customer retention and capital consumption. Group insurance’s negative NBV also matters; attractive premium volume can coexist with unattractive modeled shareholder economics.银保渠道贡献了 NBV 增量的 77.0%，占总 NBV 的比例从 40.1% 升至 53.6%。这并不自动说明增长不好，而是告诉研究者该把精力放在哪里：银行合作条件、产品保证利益、佣金、客户留存与资本消耗。团险 NBV 为负同样值得注意，保费规模与对股东有利的精算价值并不总是同步。
Test the return assumption, not just the headline value检验回报假设，不能只记住估值结果
For the 2025 valuation, the company uses an 8.5% risk discount rate and assumes a 4.0% annual investment return for non-unit-linked life funds. The sensitivity table changes one assumption while holding the others constant. Its baseline NBV is RMB 9.842 billion; lowering the investment-return assumption by 0.5 percentage points reduces it to RMB 6.685 billion.2025 年评估采用 8.5% 的风险贴现率，非投资连结型寿险资金的未来年度投资回报假设为 4.0%。敏感性表每次只改变一项假设，其他条件保持不变。基准 NBV 为 98.42 亿元；投资回报假设下降 0.5 个百分点时，降至 66.85 亿元。
A small annual spread change compounds across a long contract每年一点利差变化，会影响很长一段合同现金流
The percentage change in value is much larger than 0.5% because the return change affects many future years, while promised benefits and some expenses do not fall by the same amount. Shareholders receive the residual after those obligations. The same table reduces in-force business value from RMB 75.427 billion to RMB 36.965 billion, a 51.0% decline. That is the in-force component, not total embedded value of RMB 287.840 billion. Applying a 51% haircut to total EV or the share price would be a different and unsupported calculation.价值降幅远大于 0.5%，因为回报变化会影响未来许多年，而承诺给付和部分费用不会等比例减少，股东取得的是履行这些义务之后的剩余。同一张表中，有效业务价值从 754.27 亿元降至 369.65 亿元，降幅 51.0%。这只是有效业务价值部分，不是总额 2,878.40 亿元的内含价值；不能把 51% 直接扣到总 EV 或股价上。
Source: 2025 annual report, pp. 57–60. NBV and in-force values are after required-capital costs.来源：2025 年报，第 57—60 页。NBV 与有效业务价值均为扣除要求资本成本后的口径。
Work through the case动手核对
If the 2025 net investment yield was 2.8%, does comparing it with the 4.0% valuation assumption prove that the actuarial value is overstated?2025 年净投资收益率只有 2.8%，低于估值使用的 4.0%，是否足以证明精算价值被高估？
Check the reasoning核对推理
No. Net investment yield primarily measures recurring interest, dividends and rent; the valuation assumption concerns future investment returns over the policy horizon. Their numerators and time horizons differ. Examine total returns, asset allocation, reinvestment yields and liability guarantees together, then use the disclosed sensitivities to test a defensible long-run assumption.不足以。净投资收益率主要衡量利息、股息与租金，估值假设针对保单未来期间的投资回报，分子和时间跨度并不相同。应结合总回报、资产配置、再投资收益与负债保证利益，再用披露的敏感性分析检验合理的长期假设。
Use 2026 to distinguish insurance progress from market returns用 2026 年区分保险改善与投资行情
| Measure指标 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Net investment yield净投资收益率 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| Total investment yield总投资收益率 | 5.8 | 6.6 |
| Comprehensive investment yield综合投资收益率 | 8.5 | 5.0 |
In 2025, realized investment gains rose from RMB 2.733 billion to RMB 37.373 billion, supporting total return. Meanwhile, investment-related other comprehensive income switched from RMB 36.049 billion to minus RMB 24.406 billion, pulling comprehensive return down. Higher total yield and lower comprehensive yield are compatible accounting outcomes. Neither asset measure alone captures all asset–liability effects. Investment gains are part of an insurer’s normal business, so “volatile” must not be confused with accounting “non-recurring items”.2025 年投资资产买卖价差收益从 27.33 亿元增至 373.73 亿元，推动总投资回报；同时，投资相关其他综合收益从 360.49 亿元转为负 244.06 亿元，拉低综合投资回报。总收益率提高、综合收益率下降可以同时发生，但这两个资产端指标都不能单独概括完整的资产负债匹配效果。投资本来就是保险经营的一部分，“波动较大”也不等于会计分类中的“非经常性损益”。
Source: 2025 annual report, p. 43, investment income reconciliation and yield definitions.来源：2025 年报，第 43 页，投资收益构成与收益率定义。
| Measure指标 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Attributable net profit归母净利润 | 328.57 | 222.82 |
| Insurance service revenue保险服务收入 | 376.26 | 392.92 |
| Issued-contract insurance service result原保险合同保险服务业绩 | 139.41 | 156.71 |
| Original premiums原保险保费收入 | 1,727.05 | 1,787.41 |
| NBV新业务价值 | Amount not disclosed未披露绝对额 | 88.73 |
| Annualized total investment yield年化总投资收益率 | 8.6% | 3.5% |
| Annualized comprehensive yield年化综合投资收益率 | 6.7% | 5.0% |
Source: 2026 Q3 report, pp. 1–5 and 12; 2026 NBV is described as growing, without an exact growth rate.来源：2026 年三季报，第 1—5、12 页；报告称 NBV 正增长，但没有给出确切增幅。
Source for 2025 premium and annualized yields: 2025 Q3 report, pp. 6 and 8. It gives NBV growth but not its absolute amount; no value has been reverse-engineered here.2025 年保费与年化收益率来源：2025 年三季报第 6、8 页。该报告披露 NBV 增速但未列绝对额，本文不据此反推填表。
The nine-month comparison contains both progress and pressure: insurance service result rose 12.4%, but attributable profit fell 32.2%. The 2026 report attributes the profit decline to investment fluctuations against a high prior-year base. July–September alone recorded a RMB 511 million attributable loss; the full nine-month period remained profitable. A reading that ignores either the improved insurance result or the investment loss would be incomplete.前三季度同时存在改善与压力：保险服务业绩增长 12.4%，归母净利润下降 32.2%。2026 年报告将利润下降联系到上年高基数下的投资波动；其中 7—9 月单季归母亏损 5.11 亿元，前三季度累计仍然盈利。既不能忽略保险业务的改善，也不能因为它在改善，就把股东承受的投资损失抹掉。
Growth must leave enough capital for the promises增长之后，资本还要足够履行承诺
| Measure指标 | Core核心 | Comprehensive综合 |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 20242024 年末 | 124.07 | 217.55 |
| 31 Dec 20252025 年末 | 135.11 | 210.47 |
| 30 Sep 20252025 年 9 月末 | 154.27 | 234.15 |
| 30 Sep 20262026 年 9 月末 | 126.17 | 191.97 |
Annual source: 2025 annual report, p. 47. The quarter-end pairs are from the 2025 and 2026 Q3 reports, p. 3 in each.年度来源：2025 年报第 47 页；季度末两行取自前述 2025、2026 年三季报，各第 3 页。
In 2025, actual capital increased, but minimum required capital grew faster; the report also identifies a capital-bond redemption. This helps explain why comprehensive solvency declined while core solvency increased. By September 2026, both ratios were below the previous September’s levels. The useful question is how investment exposure, business mix and new-policy growth consume capital—not whether every decline means insolvency or every ratio above a threshold permits unrestricted dividends.2025 年实际资本增长，但最低资本增长更快，年报还披露了资本补充债券赎回影响，因此综合偿付能力下降与核心偿付能力提高并不矛盾。到 2026 年 9 月末，两项比率都低于上年同月。真正要研究的是投资敞口、业务结构和新单增长如何消耗资本，而不是把每次下降都说成偿付危机，或把超过监管门槛等同于可以自由分红。
Value growth needs sound assumptions and sufficient capital价值增长仍需检验假设与资本需求
New China Life shows genuine improvement in disclosed insurance measures, but the evidence does not justify treating its earnings as a stable, low-risk compounding stream. Better persistency and insurance service results support the operating improvement; bancassurance supplied 77.0% of the 2025 NBV increment, while nine-month 2026 net profit fell 32.2% and capital ratios declined from the previous September.新华披露的保险经营指标确有改善，但还不能把它的收益当作平稳、低风险的复利来源。继续率与保险服务业绩改善，支持经营进步的判断；同时，2025 年 NBV 增量的 77.0% 来自银保渠道，2026 年前三季度净利润下降 32.2%，偿付能力比率也低于上年同月。
An owner should pay for new policies only to the extent that their future cash benefits survive realistic assumptions and capital costs. NBV is a discounted estimate of those benefits, not an additional pool of cash on top of profit. Its reported growth is a useful starting point, but a valuation should test how much value remains when investment returns are lower and acquisition costs or policy lapses are less favorable. The published 50-basis-point return sensitivity cuts 2025 NBV by 32.1%; this makes the assumption material to the purchase price without proving that the stressed outcome will occur.所有者愿意为新保单付多少钱，应取决于其未来现金利益能否经受现实假设与资本成本的检验。NBV 是这些利益的折现估计，不是在净利润之外又多出的一笔现金。披露的增长可以作为研究起点，但估值必须检查投资回报降低、获客费用或保单失效情况不利时，价值还能保留多少。官方将投资回报假设降低 50 个基点后，2025 年 NBV 减少 32.1%；这说明假设会实质影响合理买价，却不意味着压力情形必然发生。
The capital-allocation question is whether the next unit of growth earns enough for the capital it locks up. The stronger NBV and persistency data favor further investigation of the new-business franchise. Lower comprehensive solvency, however, prevents equating that growth with immediately distributable value. For shareholder analysis, new-policy value, capital retained to support it, and cash available after contractual obligations must be assessed together. Expanding premiums, paying dividends and increasing investment risk all compete for a finite balance-sheet buffer; choosing among them cannot be judged by premium growth alone.资本配置的关键，是下一份增长能否为被占用的资本赚到足够回报。NBV 与继续率改善，值得继续研究新单经营能力；综合偿付能力下降，又提醒我们不能把增长等同于立即可分配的价值。判断股东收益时，应把新单价值、支撑新单而留存的资本，以及履约之后剩余的现金放在一起。扩张保费、支付股息和增加投资风险，都在使用有限的资产负债表缓冲，不能只用保费增速评价这些选择。
The inverse case is a business whose sales success outruns its economic value. Greater reliance on bancassurance could become a weakness if access to customers requires higher commissions, more generous guarantees or policies that lapse sooner than assumed. If incentives reward new-premium volume more strongly than value after capital costs and later persistency, the apparent growth could arrive before its costs become visible. This article has not established such incentive arrangements or adverse behavior. It identifies what must be checked in channel disclosures, product terms and remuneration policies before declaring the growth durable.逆向情形是：销售成功跑在经济价值前面。如果扩大银保销售需要更高佣金、更重保证利益，或保单比假设更早失效，渠道贡献增加就可能成为弱点。如果激励更重视新单规模，而不是扣除资本成本后的价值与后续持续率，增长可能先被看见，成本却晚些显现。本文并未证实公司采用这样的激励或出现这些行为，而是明确：认定增长能够持续之前，需要核对渠道披露、产品条款与薪酬政策。
A holder can turn the thesis into three observable tests: whether channel value margins and persistency hold up, whether service earnings improve without demanding increasingly optimistic assumptions, and whether capital headroom can support the strategy. Improving profit driven mainly by market gains would not by itself strengthen the life-business thesis. Deteriorating persistency or value margins together with weaker capital would require rebuilding it, even if total premiums kept rising. For a new researcher, a favorable base-case EV multiple is insufficient: test the valuation under lower-return assumptions, keeping the in-force-value sensitivity separate from total EV.持有者可以把依据落到三项可观察的检验：渠道价值率与继续率能否维持，保险服务收益能否在不依赖更乐观假设的情况下改善，资本余量能否支撑经营安排。主要由行情推动的利润反弹，并不单独强化寿险经营判断；如果继续率或价值率与资本同时走弱，即使总保费仍增长，也应重建持有依据。准备研究买入的读者，则不能停留在基准 EV 倍数看似便宜：还要用较低回报假设复核估值，且始终区分有效业务价值与总 EV。
The actionable research conclusion is to require more evidence of durable channel economics and capital resilience before paying for the headline NBV growth. This is not a conclusion that the shares should be avoided at every price; no current price, required return or sufficiently complete downside valuation has been established here. The next step is to bound sustainable shareholder value and compare that range with the chosen A- or H-share price, using the scope checks in the five-insurer comparison.可以执行的研究结论是：在为醒目的 NBV 增长付出估值溢价之前，先取得渠道收益能够持续、资本能够承受波动的更多证据。这不等于认定它在任何价格都不值得买；本文尚未核定当前价格、所需回报率，也没有完成足够全面的不利情形估值。下一步应先界定可持续股东价值的范围，再与选定的 A 股或 H 股价格比较，并用五家险企对照中的口径检查避免误比。
